September 30, 2023
Illustration through 99designs

“In case you should panic, panic early.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Uncertainty is definitely a motive for precaution slightly than simply throwing warning to the wind and simply saying, ‘Effectively, we don’t know, so what the hell? Let’s simply maintain going.’”

— Scott Patterson

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) spent 21 years as a risk-taker (quantitative dealer) earlier than changing into a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (largely) sensible issues with chance.

Taleb is the writer of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black SwanFooled by RandomnessAntifragileThe Bed of Procrustes, and Skin in the Game), protecting broad aspects of uncertainty. His work has been printed into 49 languages.

Along with his dealer life, Taleb has additionally written, as a backup of the Incerto, greater than 70 technical and scholarly papers in mathematical statistics, genetics, quantitative finance, statistical physics, medication, philosophy, ethics, economics, and worldwide affairs across the notion of threat and chance (grouped within the Technical Incerto).

Taleb is presently Distinguished Professor of Danger Engineering at NYU’s Tandon College of Engineering (retired). His present focus is on the properties of methods that may deal with dysfunction (“antifragile”).


Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott) is an investigative reporter for The Wall Avenue Journal, presently primarily based in Washington DC, engaged on local weather and power coverage. His new guide is Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis, a profile of the rise of “black-swan merchants,” resembling Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel, in addition to a survey of the various perils the world faces at this time—and the way we would repair them.

Scott has lined all the things from Berkshire Hathaway to inventory exchanges to high-speed merchants to the monetary regulators. His first guide, The Quants, describes the rise of mathematical finance and delves into its function within the 2008 monetary blowup. Dark Pools, his second guide, tells how pc merchants took management of the US inventory market, ranging from the beginning of pc buying and selling within the Nineteen Eighties to the explosion of high-frequency buying and selling within the late 2000s.

Please take pleasure in!

Hearken to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Musicor in your favourite podcast platform. You may watch the interview on YouTube here.

Dropped at you by AG1 all-in-one dietary complementHelix Sleep premium mattresses, and LinkedIn Jobs recruitment platform with 900M+ customers.

The transcript of this episode might be discovered right here. Transcripts of all episodes might be discovered right here.

#691: Nassim N. Taleb & Scott Patterson — How Merchants Make Billions in The New Age of Disaster, Defending Towards Silent Dangers, Private Independence, Skepticism The place It (Actually) Counts, The Bishop and The Economist, and A lot Extra

This episode is delivered to you by AG1! I get requested on a regular basis, “In case you may use just one complement, what wouldn’t it be?” My reply is often AG1, my all-in-one dietary insurance coverage. I beneficial it in The 4-Hour Physique in 2010 and didn’t receives a commission to take action. I do my greatest with nutrient-dense meals, in fact, however AG1 additional covers my bases with nutritional vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that help intestine well being and the immune system. 

Proper now, you’ll get a 1-year provide of Vitamin D free along with your first subscription buy—an important nutrient for a robust immune system and powerful bones. Go to to assert this particular provide at this time and obtain your 1-year provide of Vitamin D (and 5 free AG1 journey packs) along with your first subscription buy! That’s as much as a one-year provide of Vitamin D as added worth once you attempt their scrumptious and complete each day, foundational vitamin complement that helps whole-body well being.

This episode is delivered to you by Helix SleepHelix was chosen as the perfect general mattress of 2022 by GQ journal, Wired, and Residence Remedy. With Helix, there’s a selected mattress to satisfy each physique’s distinctive consolation wants. Simply take their quiz—only two minutes to complete—that matches your physique kind and sleep preferences to the proper mattress for you. They’ve a 10-year guarantee, and also you get to attempt it out for 100 nights, risk-free. They’ll even choose it up from you should you don’t find it irresistible. And now, Helix is providing 25% off all mattress orders plus two free pillows at The 25% off provide is legitimate till September tenth.

This episode is delivered to you by LinkedIn Jobs. Whether or not you want to rent now for a important function or enthusiastic about wants that you could have sooner or later, LinkedIn Jobs can assist. LinkedIn screens candidates for the laborious and gentle abilities you’re on the lookout for and places your job in entrance of candidates on the lookout for job alternatives that match what you need to provide.

Utilizing LinkedIn’s lively neighborhood of greater than 900 million professionals worldwide, LinkedIn Jobs can assist you discover and rent the best particular person quicker. When your corporation is able to make that subsequent rent, discover the best particular person with LinkedIn Jobs. And now, you’ll be able to put up a job without spending a dime. Just visit

Need to hear an interview with another person who historical past will keep in mind as far more than a profitable hedge fund supervisor? Hearken to my most up-to-date dialog with Ed Thorp by which we mentioned music as stress discount, avoiding pointless dangers, tips on how to turn out to be extra numeracy literate, the worth of long-term considering, the value of short-term considering, making the perfect monetary selections with unknown variables, tips on how to have enjoyable studying about chance and statistics, and far more.

#604: Grasp Investor Ed Thorp on Easy methods to Suppose for Your self, Psychological Fashions for the Second Half of Life, Easy methods to Be Internal-Directed, How Primary Numeracy Is a Superpower, and The Risks of Investing Fads

What was your favourite quote or lesson from this episode? Please let me know in the comments.



  • Join with Nassim Nicholas Taleb:

Website | Twitter

  • Join with Scott Patterson:

Website | Twitter


Editor’s Word: Timestamps might be added shortly

  • How Scott and Nassim first related.
  • Why Nassim would slightly be remembered as a scholar than a dealer.
  • You may’t forge a brand new friendship with out breaking a couple of eggs.
  • Silent threat, tail occasions, and one-trick ponies.
  • What prompted Scott to jot down Chaos Kings?
  • Pseudo-efficiency, pseudo-optimization, and pseudo-sorries.
  • The enjoyment of writing a preemptive resignation letter.
  • Growing resilience in opposition to criticism.
  • Recurring patterns in profitable traders.
  • Nassim: contrarian, or just unbiased?
  • Jiving with skeptical turkeys.
  • Dwelling within the polycrisis.
  • The precautionary precept.
  • Fats tails, skinny tails, and the COVID vaccine.
  • GMO dangers and Monsanto intimidation ways.
  • Implementing the precautionary precept at a big scale.
  • Uncertainty and the local weather disaster.
  • Convexity within the face of monetary disaster.
  • Are traders overpowered in an interconnected world?
  • Using the precaution precept in the actual world (for higher and worse).
  • The flow-on impact of getting pores and skin within the recreation.
  • The ponzification of startups and an overdue reckoning.
  • What convexity on the middle of all issues conveys.
  • The place to seek out Scott and Nassim.
  • What Nassim is engaged on now.
  • New insights from historical phrases.
  • Parting ideas.


“On my grave, I don’t wish to be often called a dealer, however as a scholar.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“In case you should panic, panic early.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Uncertainty is definitely a motive for precaution slightly than simply throwing warning to the wind and simply saying, ‘Effectively, we don’t know, so what the hell? Let’s simply maintain going.’”

— Scott Patterson

“It’s what I name pseudo-optimization: In case you drive a Ferrari 500 kilometers per hour, you’re not going to get there quicker than should you trip a bicycle, as a result of clearly you’re by no means going to get there.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“I got here into Wall Avenue and began studying about how there’s this perception that individuals are irrational and the markets are rational and they’re predictable due to this. And I believed that’s simply loopy. To me, I take a look at monetary markets and I see black swans, I see concern and greed. That to me is what drives markets, not rational conduct, rational expectations.”

— Scott Patterson


The Tim Ferriss Present is one of the most well-liked podcasts on the earth with greater than 900 million downloads. It has been chosen for “Better of Apple Podcasts” 3 times, it’s typically the #1 interview podcast throughout all of Apple Podcasts, and it has been ranked #1 out of 400,000+ podcasts on many events. To hearken to any of the previous episodes without spending a dime, take a look at this web page.